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Sertifikat Jaka Satya Bhakti

ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTING OF CORRUGATED CARTON BOX PACKAGING AT PT. MULTIBOX INDAH

ABSTRACTION

Jaka Satya Bhakti       :           14213595

ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTING OF CORRUGATED CARTON BOX PACKAGING AT PT. MULTIBOX INDAH

Scientific Paper, Majoring in Management, Economic Faculty, Gunadarma University, 2016.

Keyword : Demand Forecasting, Corrugated Carton Box

( xiii + 45 + enclosure )

Business competition nowadays requires a businessman to be more sensitive of people desires. So, a businessman must have a good management to determine how much the manufacture should produce finished good to serve the people needs.The success of a corporate can be reflected by a capability of forecasting in management to take the opportunities by optimal, then profit can be gained. Something to help the optimal decision making is a quick, systemathic, and responsible method. The once of that method is a Forecasting Method.

Moving average is a kind of forecasting which combining data from a few new or last periods. Weight Moving Average is a forecasting that the calculation is almost same with Moving Average, but it has weighted number in each data. Exponential Smoothing is a procedure to repeat the calculation continuously using newest data. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), is the way to find the deviation between the real data with forecasted data with ranked or leveled error during the forecasting.

From the calculation analysis forecasting with, Moving Average, Weight Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing, PT. Multibox Indah should use the Weighted Moving Average by 3 periods. This is because that forecasting method gain smallest error between the other forecasting method. The result of demand forecasting product in January 2016 is 5,944,064 pcs. So we can conclude that Weighted Moving Average in 3 periods method is a solution in forecasting because it approximately reality.

Bibliography (2001 - 2011)

CONCLUSION

By the result of demand forecasting product analysis at PT. Multibox Indah, we can get final conclusions are :

1.      The number of demand forecasting product at PT. Multibox Indah in 9 months is 5,944,064 using Weighted Moving Average in 3 periode, because that method has smallest MAD (375,514) compared by other.

2.      The error number compared by each other forecasting method is 408,049 with Moving Average Method, 375,514 with Weighted Moving Average Method, and 450,707 with Exponential Smoothing Method.

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